Dark Horses

[Racer]

Hi Guys,

Starting this NEW thread called Dark Horses as a means of keeping a record of these.

Dark Horses

* These are horses who have shown very little on the racecourse OR have not run at a racecourse yet but for one reason or another may have potential to do better or can suddenly improve and give a much better running than previously.


* Most will be bigger priced unfancied horses - difficult to be confident with these types, but from time to time, they could deliver with a big price but these will not be as reliable as others.



* So keep this as a Long Term plan and use small stakes if betting on these.



08/03/10
2-30 Strat - Magistrate - f/c 25/1 - Lost
5-00 Lin - Heading To First - f/c 8/1 - 2nd @ 8/1



09/03/10
4-40 Sou - Daaweitza - 3rd @ 9/1
Mangham - f/c 10/1 each - Lost

[Racer]

Wed.

4-30 Lingfield - Woolston Ferry - f/c 10/1

7-00 Wolverhampton - Seasider - f/c 6/1

[Les]

Nice One Racer.................... Woolston Ferry !!!!!!!!!

[Racer]

Thanks Les...

Yes a great result and I too was on it this time - I saw it early today and I suspected something was going on ...
I looked at it's last 3 runs and further back and decided that this one is a Dark Horse...

It just has not shown any recent form as such but that's exactly why this became a Dark Horse...

and it won..!

4-30 Lingfield - Woolston Ferry - f/c 10/1 - Won @ 13/2 - Paid 9.86 on BSP....!!!!! wow - was 7/1 earlier...!

7-00 Wolverhampton - Seasider - f/c 6/1- 2nd @ 6/1 - Paid 2.14 on BSP....!!!!! wow - was 15/2 earlier...!

[Racer]

11/03/10

8-00 Wolverhampton - Peter's Gift - f/c 8/1 - Lost

8-30 Wolverhampton - Singbella - f/c 8/1 - Lost



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/03/10

5-50 Wolverhampton - Interchoice Star - f/c 10/1 - Lost
a bit of a longshot and not 100% reliable but if things drop right in his favour
he could be placed hopefully.


8-20 Wolverhampton - Bold Adventure - f/c 5/1 - Won @ 2/1 - earlier 7/2 - Paid 3.75 on BSP but was bigger on Betfair earlier



This time of the year is his time & from a good stable - could see this distance as
quite suitable but has many others who could also run well.

[Racer]

Dark Horses Result.....


* Great to see this one at least getting placed...!
Despite losing it's place approx. 2 furlongs from home he fought back and gained the 3rd position and what's even more comforting is that I was not the only one who thought this one was in with a chance...
This was indeed a planned gamble - it opened at 10/1 and was backed in all the way down to 6/1........!

Very pleased I am with this result...


4-40 Chepstow - Forzy Origny - f/c 8/1 - 3rd @ 6/1 - Opened 10/1 - Paid between 2.47 & 2.9

His last 6 form figures read 453/670 - hardly inspiring and giving no clue but has been raced in higher class before and although not achieved much, maybe another chance at this longer trip may suit - from a good in form yard, good jockey, is the right age, trip within reach - trying 3 miles for the first time, can go well fresh, ground ok, and a few other good things about this one.
All we now need is this one to perform as well as he did a few runs ago and can show us what he is made of.
I think he has a chance as has ability so give this one an each way shout - maybe a small each way shout.

[Racer]

4-40 Stratford - Just Rob - f/c 6/1 - 3rd @ 7/2 - Placed and good enough...! we get something back and obviosuly more than a point - Paid 2.11 for a Place
I have my suspicion about this one - not had many chances - only run 5 times and won once
at the same distance as today.
Been running in similar company and now steps down a fraction and is ridden by a jockey who does
ride well for this stable.
Not entirely sure if this better ground will be as suitable today but only a 5yo and has scope for
improvement and may well fill a place in this race.
Trainer does ok here & just come here with this one horse and I hope it is worthwhile.

[Racer]

1-20 Southwell - Effisio Princess - f/c 8/1 - Lost - came in 4th..! @ 20/1........! wow
Not a certainty by any means but in a race where there are doubts ocer 1 or 2 others,
I don't mind going for a little bit of value on this one.
Even if it gets placed I'll be happy.

[Racer]

3-20 Chel - Kalahari King - f/c 9/2 - 3rd @ 9/2 - Paid 1.66 for a Place...!
The price isn't much good but the way he ran last time and came from behind and jumped really well to take
command means this one is at the top of his game right now and over 2 miles is going to suit him very well.
Of course he has Master Minded to contend with but a place could be easily got by this one from Ferdy Murphy's yard
and with Graham Lee on board and a stable who know the time of the day.

[Racer]

4-55 Hexham - Jane Doe - f/c 14/1
This mare called Jane Doe is a not fancied by anyone and unfortunately the trainer's stats
at this course read 0 from 36 ..!
That does not inspire any confidence in this horse...
But wait a minute....I think it has a tiny chance based on what I can see...
Ok - let's break it down a bit - Jane Doe took 15 months off racing - probably went on a long sunny
holiday or had some problems, but then it re-appeared in mid Feb. this year and didn't do much
which is understandable and then the next run was 12 days ago...
This may have helped to blow the cobwebs off and she could now be sharper and possibly ready
to run a decent race.
Also Jane Doe is only 1 of 2 Distance winners in this whole race of 17 runners.
This is a 3 mile race and Jane Doe is one of two who has won over this distance. All the others have to
prove themselves yet.
Not badly handicapped either. An ok jockey on board who rode this horse to victory back in 2008.
Now - I am not saying this will win . But it has a tiny chance of being placed and that is what
I am hoping for.
I will be happy if this gets placed and in this race 4 places get paid on Betfair or normal bookmakers.
Ground is Ok, weight is OK, conditions look ok, handicapped ok, class is ok, and several other
important things I consider are ok as well - the only one thing is the trainer's stats at this course.
Maybe things may change today.? Let's hope so...


Current Betfair Win Price = 15.0
Current Betfair Place Price = 3.5

[Racer]

Take it or leave it....

you just can't beat a good placer.....

and this was a hidden gem - only shame was it didn't win...

But hey......> We Got Paid 3.5 minimum and more for 1pt outlay

So a Profit of +2.5pts made minimum on the Place part which is what I was hoping for and got it...!

Don't forget this was a 17 runner Handicap so you do get paid 4th Place.


4-55 Hexham - Jane Doe - f/c 14/1 - 4th @ 14/1 - Paid 3.75 for a Place on BSP
This mare called Jane Doe is a not fancied by anyone and unfortunately the trainer's stats
at this course read 0 from 36 ..!
That does not inspire any confidence in this horse...
But wait a minute....I think it has a tiny chance based on what I can see...
Ok - let's break it down a bit - Jane Doe took 15 months off racing - probably went on a long sunny
holiday or had some problems, but then it re-appeared in mid Feb. this year and didn't do much
which is understandable and then the next run was 12 days ago...
This may have helped to blow the cobwebs off and she could now be sharper and possibly ready
to run a decent race.
Also Jane Doe is only 1 of 2 Distance winners in this whole race of 17 runners.
This is a 3 mile race and Jane Doe is one of two who has won over this distance. All the others have to
prove themselves yet.
Not badly handicapped either. An ok jockey on board who rode this horse to victory back in 2008.
Now - I am not saying this will win . But it has a tiny chance of being placed and that is what
I am hoping for.
I will be happy if this gets placed and in this race 4 places get paid on Betfair or normal bookmakers.
Ground is Ok, weight is OK, conditions look ok, handicapped ok, class is ok, and several other
important things I consider are ok as well - the only one thing is the trainer's stats at this course.
Maybe things may change today.? Let's hope so...


Current Betfair Win Price = 15.0
Current Betfair Place Price = 3.5

[Racer]

6-50 Wolverhampton - Grand Honour - f/c 7/2
Not much of a price at 7/2 but this has a chance - same jockey as last time when this one finished
quite well over the same distance as today 7f and has no problems in all the other relevant departments
and I feel this horse could go and run well.
Yes there will be some copetition for the lead but this one just needs holding back slightly and should
be finsihing to some effect IF Jimmy Quinn is alert and doesn't let any other horses get away with a long
lead - much ensure he doesn't give too much rope to the other jockeys or else will suffer..!

Have a 1pt Each Way on this one

Current Betfair Win Price = 8.2
Current Betfair Place Price = 2.9

[Racer]

Results

* Not quite sure what happened..? but the horse weakend and backed out tamely...

* A Loss of -2pts yesterday


6-50 Wolverhampton - Grand Honour - f/c 7/2 - Lost
Not much of a price at 7/2 but this has a chance - same jockey as last time when this one finished
quite well over the same distance as today 7f and has no problems in all the other relevant departments
and I feel this horse could go and run well.
Yes there will be some copetition for the lead but this one just needs holding back slightly and should
be finsihing to some effect IF Jimmy Quinn is alert and doesn't let any other horses get away with a long
lead - much ensure he doesn't give too much rope to the other jockeys or else will suffer..!

Have a 1pt Each Way on this one

Current Betfair Win Price = 8.2
Current Betfair Place Price = 2.9

[Racer]

Dark Horses




3-40 Folkestone - Idle Power - f/c 25/1 - 1/4pt Each Way on this one
This a 12 year old but make no mistakes about this one - he will be staying on whilst others
may have had enough in this Heavy Ground. Maybe he can nab a place and at 25/1 I
m happy to put 1/4 of a point towards it for a place




4-10 Folkestone - Hawridge Star - f/c 6/1 - 1/2pt Each Way on this one
This may well run a good race....and hope it can be placed at the very least

[Racer]

Results


Dark Horses

3-40 Folkestone - Idle Power - f/c 25/1 - 1/4pt Each Way on this one - Los


4-10 Folkestone - Hawridge Star - f/c 6/1 - 1/2pt Each Way on this one - Won @ 11/4 earlier - Paid 3.25 for a Win on BSP


Another small profit if doing at 1pt level stakes, the outlay would have been = 1.5pts.
Return would have been 3.25pts.
Profit = +1.75pts using 1pt as Unit Stakes

[Racer]

5-30 Redcar - Fine And Dandie - f/c 14/1 - Lost - 1/2pt lost
Got it all to do but over 5 furlongs the trainer is King in training some good speedy ones
and with blinkers on for the first time, you never know...
It may not be able to do anything and that could be because others are stronger, but
I'd say this one has a tiny squeak and hope it places...

1/4pt. Each Way

Current Betfair Win Price = 16.5

Current Betfair Place Price = 4.4

[Racer]

4-20 Nottingham - Dubai Gem - f/c 20/1 - Lost
This is a tough race with 14 runners and many have proven form to a degree when compared to
Dubai Gem.
But the breeding suggests a likely positive scenario for Dubai Gem and possibly will handle
softer conditions today and also has a good joc. on board
Cannot be confident as has only run 4 times ever and never won or even placed.
But when seeking VALUE - we have to go for shots like these at 20/1 and try our luck.
I suggest a tiny stake each way as difficult to be confident as too many others are better..!




1/4pt. Each Way

Current Betfair Win Price = 42.0

Current Betfair Place Price = 9.2

[Racer]

8-50 Wolverhampton - Quiet Mountain - f/c 5/1

Likely to go well as caught the eye last time.
Form also holding up although not achieved anything in 6 starts in its life.
I think it has a chance and we will need the jockey to really push this one come the final turn
at Wolverhampton tonight.

Fingers crossed for this one...!




1/2pt. Each Way

Current Betfair Win Price = 6.2

Current Betfair Place Price = 2.3

[Racer]

Results

* I am not sure who did this one, but if they did they will be singing & dancing...

Not only was it Placed but it Won as well and at a beautiful price....

It Won @ 7/1

& Paid 9.3 on BSP

* The jockey really did the trick - it was travelling easy and from after the bend, he kicked and was never in any danger.


8-50 Wolverhampton - Quiet Mountain - f/c 5/1

Likely to go well as caught the eye last time.
Form also holding up although not achieved anything in 6 starts in its life.
I think it has a chance and we will need the jockey to really push this one come the final turn
at Wolverhampton tonight.

Fingers crossed for this one...!




1/2pt. Each Way

Current Betfair Win Price = 6.2

Current Betfair Place Price = 2.3


On 6.2 , 1/2pt returned = +3.1pts

On 2.3 Place, 1/2pt returned = +1.15pts

BUT

If anyone took later prices

then On 9.3, 1/2pt returned = +4.65pts

On 2.62 Place, 1/2pt returned = +1.31pts


Overall we made a good profit of +3.25pts on early prices minus 5% comm.
&
on later prices +6.31pts


Not bad at all......hope you were all on this one...

[pete65]

Hi Racer

Yep thanks for this one had it at 9 did'nt do the place

Sweet

[Les]

Me Too....!!!!
Always on these Racer.......Well done again...
Les.

[Racer]

Excellent Guys & am very pleased you both did this.

I also had another ( the winner in the last race ) but didn't give it out as I was little suspect on it's stamina
for the 1m 4f race...!

Now I wish I had..!!!!!

Anyway - great news you were on and I was on as well...

and I made a right killing...!