Longshots....!

[Racer]

2-40 Ling - Independednt James - 16/1 - Backed in from 16/1 into 15/2.....!
* This one is a first time outer so in that respect no previous form and it is a gamble
However - I have a funny feeling about the pedigree of this one - this could well suit for this
horse - BUT - do NOT get involved unless there is support for it.
IF there is support - have a small place and a tiny win bet. It is just a hunch that the breeding
alone could help this horse and it is my thinking - I maybe wrong...1


* This one was 16/1 opening show - now backed in all the way into 15/2.........! wow

I feel good....!!!!!

Racer

[Racer]

Ha...Ha...Ha...

It was withdrawn in the end...!

The horses didn't want to go in the stalls...!

Damn it. Spoilt my chance of getting this...!

Racer

[Racer]

Yesterday 12/02/09....

4-10 South - Tyzack- 20/1 - 2nd @ 11/1 - was earlier avilable @ 16/1............! Paid 5.0 on Betfair for a Place...!
Nearly won...!


Racer

[Racer]

I am mentioning any Longshots here before I send out the actual 2nd update so as to try and give you an earlier peek on what has been selected....


2-15 Ling - Stormy's Prelude - 25/1 - currently 3.5 for a place
* A 3yo first time out filly by a top miler, so on that count, I can't see this lasting 1m 2f, but why I mention it here is
because this trainer is pretty good at getting one ready to run and he has a record to support it at this venue as
well. Top Joc. on board as well.
Trainer is in Profit, has a good record here with his horses 29% & come here with only 1 runner BUT the sting
in the tail is - it has been a long time since this trainer tasted any sort of success.
So - very difficult to weigh up - but keep a close eye on the betting if you can & only row in IF this one is supported.


Racer

[Racer]

WOW..............!

It came in 3rd @ 25/1.............!!!!!

Paid a very handsome 5.84 for a Place just before the Off....!

Made my day...!

Just like having a 9/2 winner...!!!


2-15 Ling - Stormy's Prelude - 25/1 - 3rd @ 25/1

* A 3yo first time out filly by a top miler, so on that count, I can't see this lasting 1m 2f, but why I mention it here is
because this trainer is pretty good at getting one ready to run and he has a record to support it at this venue as
well. Top Joc. on board as well.
Trainer is in Profit, has a good record here with his horses 29% & come here with only 1 runner BUT the sting
in the tail is - it has been a long time since this trainer tasted any sort of success.
So - very difficult to weigh up - but keep a close eye on the betting if you can & only row in IF this one is supported.


Racer

[giz]

great tip 6.6 for place - easy money

thanks

Giz

[Racer]

wow - 6.6 even better...! Tremendous...!

Racer

[Racer]

* Just had our Longshot deliver - come into 2nd place...!


1-50 Uttox. - Gouranga - 12/1 - 2nd @ 11/2.....! Paid around 2.62 for a Place...!



* An unreliable type but at least he will go through the ground and he was 2nd behind the smart Silk Affair - that performance brings him into the picture IF we can just
rely on him just this once and also if the 3.5 furlongs shorter trip does no harm to it.


Racer

[Racer]

2-40 Wolv - Diminuto - 14/1 - Lost
* Previous C&D winner, and on that has a small chance although odds doesn't reflect that. Hasn't been in great
form lately, but last 3 races ridden by amateurs and today one of the much better Pro Jockeys takes over, so
that Jockey booking takes the eye for me and I respect that and it may well be this horse nowadays needs
stronger handling and IF the jockey can get a tune of this 5yo mare, we may see a place paid out..!
But can't be sure as not been in form. Only tiny stakes if you do...


2-40 Wolv - Many Welcomes - 10/1 - Won @ 9/1 - but was 10/1....!!!!!

* Paid 4.4 for a Place on Betfair...!!!!!

* Also running in the same race could spring to life here - possibly a place chance & tiny stakes again as none too
sure how it will run after a 138 day break.


Racer

[nickyjohns]

Well done fella.......good call matey.

Nick

[Racer]

Thanks Nick...

Racer

[Racer]

Yesterday's Longshot...


4-50 Ling - Tinshu - 2nd @ 9/1 - Paid 4.5 for a Place....!!!!!

Was bigger than 9/1 earlier...!!!!

Racer

[Racer]

wow........! what a Winner...?

2-20 Hunt - Gainsborough Art - 18/1 - Won @ 16/1 - 22.0 & higher on Betfair....!!!!!
* An absolutely tiny stake for this one as it needs to improve on what he has shown previously and also
because he has to race against some better types...
So - not even certain he will get into a place but anything can happen in a race and 18/1 it is value
considering he was staying on well behind a good winner last time 55 days ago.
Almost bottom weight and in good to soft, - well - we will just have to see....tiny stake only on Place



Racer

[Les]

Yes !!!!!!!!
Excellent call Racer...........I was on that one !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CHee Clap

[Racer]

Well Done Les....!

Brilliant price on Betfair at 22.0 and higher....!!!!!

Great to hear someone was on it...

Nice One

Racer

[Racer]

* wow....!!!!!

A Superb Day with the Longshots today...! Very Pleased I am today and no doubt about that..!



4-15 Ayr - Almire Du Lia - 20/1 - Won @ 8/1 - 11.5 & 17.0 on Betfair....!!!!!

& 3.15 & 3.2 for a Place...!!!!! was 9/1 earlier...!

* The trainer of this horse won this race last year & the year before...! So, even though this one is a 20/1
shot, I acn't help but mention it here. It is likely the trainer is going to give it her best try and try and get
a 3rd successive victory out of this very well handicapped 11yo.
The only problem here is - this one is facing some inform stiff competition.
Having said that - this horse is very well handicapped and a lot lower than his last win here in this race last
year.
I cannot guarantee it will win or even be placed - but when a trainer keeps coming back again and again
targetting the same race, I have to mention it here because you never know what is going to happen...!


Racer

[dave2319]

Wow, fantastic results with these, Racer! :cool:
Am going to have to start getting on them myself ;D

I mean, if you can get average odds of 3, then even if it's only right 50% of the time that could still be great profits!
Brilliant work! 8)


Dave.

[JAYER279]

WOW!!!

I got 26's on Gainsborough + 10's on Almire.

Thx Racer!!!

[Racer]

Well Done Jayer....

Well Please to hear that and what brilliant prices as well...!

I cannot believe it myself...!!!!!

wow - what a day we are having...!

Racer

[Racer]

Hi Dave,

yes - you are right - even if I get it right a few times it is still worth it...

and all this.....

is basically what MrE keeps shouting out all the time - VALUE.....

There you go...

But I really have to study the form for this sort of stuff + and be Lucky as well....

and today we have been very, very, very, very, very LUCKY...!

Racer

[Racer]

* Another good winner...!

Was 17/2 earlier...!!!

2-50 Leicester - Ballyvaden - 9/1 - Won @ 8/1...!!!!!
* This animal won this very same race last year and maybe the trainer is eyeing this race again and could
be this one has a chance althugh have to admit the competition is very tough today..!


Racer

[Racer]

wow...!

A 14/1 winner...!

List of other Longshots that are possibles:-

3-40 Folkstone - Quattrocento - Won @ 12/1...! - Was earlier 14/1....! 16.0 and higher on Betfair...!!!!!

& Leo McGarry - Lost - 5th


Racer

[Racer]

wow...!

* A 25/1 Placed horse from the only Longshot given...!

Longshot

2-35 Uttoxeter - Mumbles Head - 3rd @ 25/1...! - Was 9.79 for a Place on Betfair...!!!!!


Needed that.


Racer

[Racer]

2-30 Ling - Kabis Amigo - Lost


Other Very Long Longshots:-

4-00 Warw - Toni Alcala - Lost - Fell



4-10 Ling - Wizard Looking - Lost

All lost


Racer

[Racer]

Take that...!

I earlier gave this out and was the complete outsider at 33/1....

It came in 4th @ 33/1...........!!!!!


3-00 Kemp - Baylini - 33/1
Up in Class compared to winning form, and everything is not quite right for this horse this time round BUT this one has
at least shown some decent form on AW in the winter.
Admittedly, has it do , but I am only hoping for a place....
a tiny chance based on 2nd to the Winter Derby Winner Scintillo in a higher
class race than this...!


Just made my day....!

Racer

[Racer]

Baylini - 33/1 was available at 8.8 for a Place for a long time.

Racer

[Racer]

Yesterday I gave Hidden Keel as the only Longshot.

It opened at 10/1, and finished well into 2nd place at 6/1.


Racer

[Racer]

Just 1 runner given today for Longshots.......

Other Very Long Longshots:-

7-20 Wind - Chiberta King - Won @ 20/1...........!!!!!


What a Superb Price and given hours earlier...!

Did anyone do this..?

Was 35.0 & 40.0 on Betfair...!!!!!

Place was 8.0 & 9.0 as well...!


Racer

[crimble]

I must admit to having a cheeky £5 each way on it ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

You ROCK !

I always try and put an each way bet on the longshots...they certainly seem to pay dividends ;D

[Racer]

Excellent Stuff Crimble..

Nice to see you were on...

By the way - for anyone else watching this thread - here at Longshots - the goal is NOT to win from every selection given.

No Sir.

The goal is VLAUE . Longshots by it's very definition means big priced selections that appear to have little chance on the face of it.

So - we won't get daily winners here but when they come in - it is WOW.

Value equates to having a small stab at each selection and ofcourse most will Lose - BUT when the odd occassinal one comes in to Win & be Placed at Superb well above Average Odds, then the Return is Fantastic.

It is a case of be prepared to be patient and keep chipping away at these Longshots using small stakes just like Monsieur Crimble did.

Racer

[Racer]

Another Longshot - well it was under the Very Longshots

Ellerslie Tom 7-00 Uttox. - the only one highlighted hours earlier...in the morning

inital price was 12/1 - Opened @ 8/1.........

Made All and scooted in and Won @ 9/2...........!

The connections of the horse planned this gamble...

Racer sussed it out hours earlier and it could have been as big as 11.0 on Betfair earlier...wow

Very Pleased another Longshot comes in for me and you.

Racer

[crimble]

You are still the Dogs Nuts mate ;D ..sadly i was out on the piss last night and completely forgot to have my little each way bet on it >:(

Ho hum...I am still jumping for joy from the Chiberta King bet the other day ;D ;D

[nickyjohns]

I shall have to pay more attention to this...........off to work now :(

Nick

[Racer]

Here's two horses I gave out earlier...under very long longshots....

and Look what happened... were you on these..?


Other Very Long Longshots:-

5-05Ascot - Talayeb - 20/1 - 3rd @ 14/1....!

5-05Ascot - Last Three Minutes - 20/1 - 4th @ 11/1 - was 14/1 earlier...!!!!!

Two in the same race and to get them both placed from a 19 runner massive Handicap Race - I need to have a drink and NOW...! ;D:D;D


Can't get it right everytime but when they come in - boy oh boy - what good prices and what good rewards...!



Racer

[Racer]

Rock...Rock....Rock...on Tommy...

4-15 Thirsk - Webbow - 2nd @ 16/1.............!!!!!

Believe it or not - it got beaten by 1/2 a length...!


Racer

[Racer]

Quite rightly identified one runner for the Longshots today...
It was in the 4-40 Mussl. - Thunder Bay - quoted @ 12/1...

and was available at 13/2 - Won @ 6/1.

Racer

[Racer]

A 33/1 4th....

Other Very Long Longshots:-

4-30 Font - Miss Midnight - 4th @ 33/1...

Racer

[Racer]

Now...

I am not sure if this one will do the busines.....

and that's why it is such a big price because no one thinks it can and no one has tipped it...

but you can see my past record here...
I have got many big priced to come in...and although it is a risk it is a far better risk to bet a small amount at big odds to win big...
than to lump on at short odds and try and win small using big stakes...

Anyway - remember - this is racing where there is no guarantee...

a lot of things can happen and go wrong but that's chance we take when we bet..

I found one today which will appear in the 2nd update but thought I had better put this in here now...

As I said - not sure if this one will do the busines.....

But just imagine....If it did the business then great
if it didn't we only lose a small amount...ok

On that basis - do NOT go mad - just have tiny each way on it okay...

Here goes...

At present - it is 36.0 for a win

and 8.8 for a Place

Other Very Long Longshots:-


3-45 Wolv - Desert Leader - 33/1 complete outsider..!

Racer

[Racer]

I forgot to add...this one Desert Leader has not run for 364 days..!

Racer

[Racer]

Longshots

7-00 Newm - Barliffey - 14/1 - Opened 8/1 - ended up @ 6/1 4th


Racer

[Racer]

Just the one given today...and came in 2nd

Longshots

3-20 Ling - Queastor - 2nd @ 7/1 ;D


Racer

[Racer]

Just take a look at that....

If you guys were not on this one then I am going to get pretty annoyed...!

* I highlighted this one Specially Hand Picked from way early

* It was 7.2 & 7.5 this morning and even higher...

* This horse was a 1st time out runner - never run before

* BUT I smelt something was cooking for this one...

* and... It was backed in all the way from much higher prices to 7/2

* Absolutely Phenomenal for me for picking this one out

* I will be most annoyed having picked this and IF you have ignored it..!


*** Anyway - the great thing is - Top 'A' Rated and it won...! ;D

7-20 Kempton - Cassiana


That really has made my day for the 2nd day running.

Remember - there was NO previous form to go on

I had to make some very tough decisions and I am so glad this one paid off.

Yes not every one of these pays off but so happy to see this in...

I feel like celebrating..

YOU guys are with the best service around and make NO mistake about it.

I have much more to come and give.

wow - I am going to put my feet up now and just work on the serious project and try and get 15 minutes to relax if I can.

You have a good evening ;D

Racer

[crimble]

I will take my punishment like a man Racer..I was not on it :mad:.....but congratulations on picking this one...great stuff ;D ;D

[Racer]

wow.....

There you go...

Just 1 Longshot given....

NEVER run in it's llife previously on a racecourse...

Unknown & Unexposed....

and I gave just this one horse out today...!

Longshots

"4-35 Newb - Colonel Carter - 16/1
Lookout for this one - first time out 2yo runner from Meehan's yard..
This very competitive 2yo Maiden race, but from good family and IF tuned
up sufficiently for first outing could be placed and that will do fine for us
IF ready to go for it.!"


and Colonel Carter in the Newb. 4-35 - came in 3rd @ a Massive 20/1....!

How about that..?

And...

in the same race

The first 3 were given in the order they finished:-

Critical Moment - Won @ Evens
Lay Clain 2nd @ 13/2
Colonel Carter 3rd @ 20/1


Yes...!


Coloner Carter paid 7.5 & 8.0 on Betfair for a Place...! ;D


I am well & truly pleased - really made my day today. ;D

Racer

[Racer]

Longshots


5-50 Kem - Clerical - 16/1 - 2nd @ 8/1


Gave this out at least 5 hours ago...

It opened at 11/1 & was backed into 8/1

Was a fast finishing 2nd...!

Had the jockey put him into the race earlier, you never know it could have won..!

I managed to get 3.4 for a Place...! ;D


Racer

[crimble]

Nice one Racer....;D

[Racer]

Other Very Long Longshots:-
4-20 Wol - Fair Passion - 20/1 - 3rd @ 33/1
2yo from D.Shaw's yard who have recently come out of the doldrums with a winner in the last few days after going through a very barren spell.

This Fair Passion is likely to be ignored by many BUT the way this 2yo started it's very first race last time out - very slowly away and then was detached from the rest of the runners in the race before able to make ground in the last 2 furlongs, and it was what caught my eye and I think this
one has an outside chance IF filly has learnt a bit from that.

At 20/1 no one is looking to do anything with it and also because the Fav. Excellent Thought in the same race is supposed to home & hosed, this one is likely to go off at a very good price which means VALUE to
us.

Now - I am NOT saying this one can win or even be placed but in a 5f sprint race anything can happen
and I am quite willing to put a tiny amount on it each way and just pray & hope for the best.

It is likely she could get beaten, but £2 each way is money well worth spending at odds of 7.2 for a place & 42.99 for a win.

IF it loses and not even placed - no big deal only £4 lost.
But were it to come into place think of the value....!!!!!

This is what Longshots is about - taking small risks on big priced selections who have NOT got an obvious chance.




I told you so and I am not going to hold back because I gave this out clearly and very early...

and I bet hardly anyone took notice....!

It just ran into a Place @ a Massive 33/1..............!!!!! ;D :D ;D


I am really over the moon with this one.... wow....wow...wow


It was 7.2 for a Place on Betfair....! ;D :D ;D

Absolutely Rock Solid Amazing Place Money paid out for a horse...!!!!!


Racer

[crimble]

You beauty Racer, well done..had a couple of quid on at 8.28 to place..fabulous work my good man ;D ;D ;D

[Racer]

Longshots


Nice to see that Orpsie Boy rewarded us with a Place and at 12/1 was a Superb price...!


4-40 Wol - Carlton Scroop - f/c 10/1 - Non Runner



6-40 Wol - Orpsie Boy - f/c 13/2 - 3rd @ 12/1
Has a definite chance in him - BUT the main question is his fitness after 101 days off.
IF he is fit, he could trouble the judge and be placed...
but because I am not certain on that can only advise a small place bet


Racer

[Racer]

Well, Well, Well.........


* I gave this out at 12-30p.m. to day - 3.5 hrs later is Wins oh so easily....

and what a Fabulous Price it was too...?

I got 16.0 & 17.0 on Betfair but it paid out 17.64 on BSP

and the Place - it was 3.6 and 3.65

Other Very Long Longshots:-


4-05 Chep - Oscar Gogo - f/c 20/1 - Betfair Win = 16.0 , Place = 3.6 - Won @ 14/1 - Paid 17.64 on BSP...........! WOW

Remember one thing here - this is Heavy ground at Chepstow so with that fact
in mind, we know anything can happen and there is no guarantee any of the horses will
perform well.
In this race Oscar Gogo has been picked despite carrying top weight of 11-12
as it maybe he can go better when he is fresh.
Of course this is a Big Lonhshot and I can only advise tiny stakes on this.
It has probably got a big chance of losing and probably only a small chance of being placed.



Racer :D;D;D

[Racer]

+ * WOW * + We got it to Place...!

Absolutely Fantastic..! mind you - most of the credit has to be given to Jason Maguire - brilliant riding and had he not kept this horse going, we would have lost.

Later this was available for a Place at 7.0 as well and I took some of that as well.

So easily some profit...with 1/2 a point going on this one.

Anyway - a Brilliant result with Bled coming in 2nd @ 20/1..............!


2-30 Hereford - Bled - @ 20/1..............!

In this race this horse does not represent solid material but then neither does any of the others at first glance.

Now - having looked deeper - this race is aweful - weak and poor - none of the horses really make any sort of appeal.
Gather around and you will see that there is more to this story....

This us a 3m 2f even in Soft going and NONE of the 13 runners EXECPT 1 HORSE (Flowonlovelyriver) have ever won a race between them...!

A combined total of 136 races between the whole lot of them and ONLY 1 horse has ever won a race twice and at ONLY 2 miles..!

Now - as you can see a very poor field of horses who either are no gooders or donkeys or just plain not interested in horse racing Full Stop....!

In SOFT going - and with none interested and never won or possibly run this far before means anything can happen and maybe a shock
result and a surprise result could emerge.

I pick this one single horse BLED and I just hope to God that he gets Placed at the very least.

I have some good reaons to suspect that there maybe some mileage in sticking with this one....
Yes we are taking a risk in a race like this but that is the beauty of it - no one really knows which one is going to win for sure.

So - in terms of points staked - I'd say a 1/2pt. on Win & Place

Current Betfair Odds for a Win = 15.0
Current Betfair Odds for a Place = 3.9

Racer

[Racer]

3rd day running our Longshot has delivered.

* After 3 miles of jumping great to see Greenbelt come in 2nd @ 5/1 and was 2.7 for a Place which is very welcome in a small field.

Longshots


4-00 Catterick - Greenbelt - f/c 7/1 - 2nd @ 5/1 - ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Only 7/1 and only 6 runners and this is a Beginners Chase -
Not a brilliant longshot on price but this one has a chance albeit has to prove he
can jump and stay this far 3m 1.5f
He has never won a race at this distance but then this is where we are at an advantage as none of
the others have either. This is a race that will depend on how well they jump over fences in Soft
going over this far and I think unproven Greenbelt may just stay this distance and could be a winner
or a placed horse.
The ONE big problem is only 6 runners means we won't get paid IF this one runs into 3rd place.
So a definite risk there but as none are really proven solid material and I have a feeling that this one
will stay this far.
The positives are that he is a previous Course winner and he handles Softish going so we do have something
in our favour and oh.....none of the others are course winners.
Current Betfair Odds for a Win = 6.0
Current Betfair Odds for a Place = 2.7


Racer

[Racer]

Results

* Right - we nearly won with this one..! He was leading all the way to the line but only just collared in the dying strides - got beaten 1.25lgths.

* Well - I managed to get 3.05 earlier but later just before the off I got 4.4 for the place, so that was even better and I had to say Thank You Very Much...!

* Another great result for the Longshots....!


Longshots

9-20 Kempton - Flamestone - f/c 8/1 - 2nd @ 12/1 ;D ;D ;D
This race is a rubbish race in terms of quality and it is not easy to rely on any selection
and Flamestone is the choice amongst these despite my reservations in a race like this.
Maybe this horse is better suited to Kempton and possibly this 1 mile..?
Not too sure as unproven over distance but then so are 9 others.
A lot of these leaves a lot to be desired and in a race as low class as this one cannot depend
on any of these and hence my choice has been downgraded from Run Well to a Longshot.
I feel this horse could run wel, is a course winner & might just be able to nab a Place
Have a 1/2pt Each Way as it is risky...!

Current Betfair Odds for a Win = 3.05
Current Betfair Odds for a Place = 11.0